Of all the positions I may or may not have about expected goals, the one that’s truly indefensible is to say there’s not much value in ExpG, then sit on the results as if it’s a set of nuclear launch codes.So this is my model.I should clarify that there isn’t one model per se1. Almost […]
For all the high priced and high profile talent MLS is bringing into the league, relative to the other major sports in North America (hi, Canada!), it’s still really, really tiny. The release of salaries by the MLS’ Players Union (happened last week) usually provides a good excuse to break down what the league looks […]
For Argentina. Why is Messi so terrible for Argentina? Sorry, was that headline misleading? Lionel Messi has one goal through the group stages of this year’s Copa America in Chile, a 35th minute penalty against Paraguay. That’s only three games, so small sample size and all, but Messi’s lack of fecundity for the Albiceleste is […]
Nothing. He contributed nothing. Maybe you totally believe that.Anyway, inspired by this piece at Statsbomb (it’s about whether Swansea can replicate the relative success of their 2014-25 campaign), I started trying to think of some obvious things that might explain what Swansea were doing this past season that had them outperform their expected goals by […]
I’m an Arsenal fan. It’s often not fun. That’s not a complaint about results. Most teams in the English league pyramid would love to have success like 18-straight Champions Leagues appearances (or whatever the number is). It’s just that the actual games themselves often make for stressful viewing because the Gunners rarely put teams away, […]
Why does having a good model matter? Well one reason is that so we don’t waste time. There’s a piece over at “Saturdays On the Couch” about Borussia Monchengladbach and the sizable outperformance of their expected goals (ExpG) total for the 12-13 and 13-14 seasons in the Bundesliga. Overall it’s a really good read. Seriously, […]
Sure it’s nice to be able to take data sets of 1000 variables and 100,000 observations and do meaningful calculations, but that doesn’t mean finding interesting information is solely the domain of complex algorithms.These are plots that are generated from nothing more than the season’s worth of league results (minus one week and one game) […]
First, I hate myself for having done this. But sometime after the Patriots were first caught deflating their balls, Sharp Football Analysis released a trilogy (also here and here) of pieces about the statistical (un)likelihood of how (in)frequently the Patriots fumbled the football. The presupposition being that an underinflated ball is easier to hold on […]
To this point in the season, the Chicago Fire have played more minutes against 10 men than any other team in MLS1. And it’s probably not luck.The Fire can run out a front line that, oh, challenges the positional awareness of MLS defenses. David Accam is fast, like very. Quincy Amarikwa and Joevin Jones are […]
After holding Valencia at home 1-1 last Thursday, Rayo Vallecano drew its second consecutive match by the same scoreline over the weekend at Espanyol. From a league standpoint the results were probably only notable for their negative impact on Rayo’s Europa aspirations. They’re now all but dead. From a statistical standpoint, though, the draws represent […]