Why does having a good model matter? Well one reason is that so we don’t waste time. There’s a piece over at “Saturdays On the Couch” about Borussia Monchengladbach and the sizable outperformance of their expected goals (ExpG) total for the 12-13 and 13-14 seasons in the Bundesliga. Overall it’s a really good read. Seriously, […]
Sure it’s nice to be able to take data sets of 1000 variables and 100,000 observations and do meaningful calculations, but that doesn’t mean finding interesting information is solely the domain of complex algorithms.These are plots that are generated from nothing more than the season’s worth of league results (minus one week and one game) […]
First, I hate myself for having done this. But sometime after the Patriots were first caught deflating their balls, Sharp Football Analysis released a trilogy (also here and here) of pieces about the statistical (un)likelihood of how (in)frequently the Patriots fumbled the football. The presupposition being that an underinflated ball is easier to hold on […]
To this point in the season, the Chicago Fire have played more minutes against 10 men than any other team in MLS1. And it’s probably not luck.The Fire can run out a front line that, oh, challenges the positional awareness of MLS defenses. David Accam is fast, like very. Quincy Amarikwa and Joevin Jones are […]
After holding Valencia at home 1-1 last Thursday, Rayo Vallecano drew its second consecutive match by the same scoreline over the weekend at Espanyol. From a league standpoint the results were probably only notable for their negative impact on Rayo’s Europa aspirations. They’re now all but dead. From a statistical standpoint, though, the draws represent […]
The last 15 minutes of Arsenal’s annual exercise in handicapping themselves with a couple of extra fixtures were a little nervy. That’s mostly because they were only up one goal but suddenly down a man after referee Pedro Proenca sent off Mathieu Debuchy on a second yellow so soft you could sleep on it (the […]
Earlier this month David Ortiz sounded off on the Cubs continually being terrible. He attributed it to playing too many day games. It’s not an unreasonable assertion; plus, after a century of not winning, every remotely plausible theory on why the Cubs can’t win will eventually be formulated.Said Ortiz: “Through the years I’ve talked to […]
Goldman Sachs’ World Cup predictions were pretty terrible.On the one hand, they correctly predicted three of the four semi-finalists. On the other hand, that’s about the only measure by which they weren’t completely awful. And it doesn’t take a cadre of geniuses to say, “I think the winningest team in the history of the competition, […]
Germany goes into this weekend’s World Cup final against Argentina almost a full three years younger on average. That is a ridiculous spread. Yet, as a team, the Germans are somehow vastly more experienced in the international arena.How is that possible?Part of it is how you think about experience. This is sort of a follow-up […]
Current Chicago Cubs’ ownership seems pretty bent on getting its way regarding upgrades to Wrigley Field (the “improvements” are basically more ad boards and a video screen that can also play ads during the game, so ads). But fans worried that it will ruin the game day experience by turning the ballpark into something akin […]